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Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Iran gets the bomb

The drums of war are beating on the American media’s great information machine, again. The same line and story from the Iraqi war run up have been dusted off and are back on display. State sponsorship of international terrorism, a government run by irrational psychopathic leaders (I’m talking about Iran not America, we have socialist in charge), a nuclear bomb will be launched on Chicago, oil held hostage and on and on. Just as with prewar Iraq the facts are in short supply and in conflict with the story.
If Iran gets a nuclear bomb, the story is told, this will start a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Israel has over 100 nukes and is the stated enemy of all the Arab countries why hasn’t that started a nuclear race? Why isn’t there a nuclear program in Saudi Arabia? Syria is going to build a nuke? Syria can’t even build the rockets it fires. How about Jordan, Yemen, Egypt, Sudan, Oman, Lebanon or Palestine starting to build nukes, none have the materials or technical infrastructure. Turkey could likely start a program so why hasn’t it already started a nuclear program? If an arms race was the problem it would already be underway. North Korea has a nuke, why hasn’t South Korea built nukes?
Iran will give nukes to international terrorist. North Korea and Pakistan have not given away or sold any nukes, the Russian mob has not sold any nukes. The difficulty of designing and building a nuke is so great that any nuke exploded can quickly be identified, physicist would know when and where it was built. Retaliation is almost certain and with nukes everybody dies, politicians and citizens, rich and poor. Could that realization restrain a leader?
Iranian leadership is irrational. Really? Where is the proof of this? Iran has elections and political baiting of America is popular just as in America political baiting of Iran is popular. Could it be that their politicians are the same as ours, saying anything that gets votes? We have Glen Beck and the NeoCons, who do they have? What makes their guys more irrational than ours?
Even using the older nuclear bomb designs available on the internet constructing a bomb is nearly impossible. The industrial capacity required is extensive and expensive. The fissionable material is constantly decaying and has to be stored separate from the other bomb components or the radioactivity will degrade the working components, maintaining a working nuke also requires highly advanced scientific capabilities.
All of the people I have listened to talking about bombing Iran seem to have several things in common. None have ever been soldiers in a war zone. They are stuck in the 1930s, talking about Neville Chamberlain and Adolf Hitler, telling us what we should have done then and why the same is true now. I think Churchill or FDR would have locked them up and continued with fighting the war. Even their vision of the past is myopic and their vision of the future is irrational paranoia. If we listen to them we will have another 10 year, 4 trillion dollar pointless war in the Middle East. Bombing Iran cannot be sold based on the merits it will need unthinking hysteria.

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