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Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Basic Laws of Economics

Banks have become “too big to fail”, “too complex to manage”, “too important to prosecute”, all being quotes from the information cloud raining sweet reason on our heads, until we are soaked in enlightenment. We become aware, without understanding, of the financial system ruling our paychecks and bank accounts. I am assured only the professionals understand markets, that only sage professors can fathom the intricate relationships of finance. The professional manipulators of popular perception are free to create analogies about the federal budget being similar to two old people sitting around their kitchen table, paying bills with money they don’t have. This certainly suits the purpose of those who can afford television advertisement time, but I must wonder if any of this helps me get through the day or maintain a stable retirement.
 Economics books have failed to instruct me, after finishing most of these tomes I wonder WTF??? I have been spoiled by my formal study of physics, mathematics and other hard science subjects. What I need is the financial equivalent of the Law of Thermodynamics, or Newton’s laws of Motion, clearly stated formulations of a useful nature, knowledge that I could use for earning a respectable living, or maintaining an honorable retirement.

I humbly offer a few Financial Laws and hypothesis using hard science principles.

The First law of economics. Everything is for sale
The Second law of economics. You can’t afford it.

Hypothesis of Monetary Principles.

Money attracts money, the strength of the attraction is calculated by the square of the greed applied, more commonly known as, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer.
It is all luck. The most likely event is the less likeable event.

Explanatory Examples.

1) There is $250 million yacht you would like to own. You can barely afford a picture of the yacht. You switch envy for greed, then start a company selling Global Warming Insurance, collect premiums until the shorelines flood, then you file bankruptcy and sail away on your yacht.
2) The public market place contains approximately 63,000 companies. An unpredictable five will be hugely successful over the next ten years, returning 1,000% on your investment. To improve the odds, you invest in a professionally managed broad based index fund. The fund manager sells the five winning stocks, years too early and "locks in the profits", pays himself a bonus for being so smart, then takes the usual management and transaction fees, which leaves your account negative.
Having proved the propositions I now offer one corollary. Financial success requires morality be confined to Sundays only.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

We have not changed, more Roman History

I find history books fascinating, engrossing, riveting, compelling and provocative. I can’t put down my current read about the Roman Empire. One theme evident in all the history books is the consistency of human nature. Over thousands of years politicians are the same, soldiers are the same, bankers are the same and the regular people in the streets are the same. Our sense of morality has sifted, we value life differently than our ancestries who lived in a brutal and deadly world, they survived by maintaining the harshest beliefs and practices. A sudden unexpected death was common before the 20th century. Due to science we live in an age of uncommon security and freedom, I hope this trend continues forever.
While our environment has changed, we have not changed. The seven deadly sins listed in the Christian bible, our human vices and frailties, remain unchanged. I am as likely to self destruct by excessive greed as a Greek citizen from 400 BC.
Upon reflection I wonder why I was surprised to learn that humans have not changed, I had imaged the ancients as stupid brutes, and I had sniggered at their simplistic flat Earth beliefs. A thousand years from now will an educated reader snigger at my simplistic flat universe beliefs? Will she realize that my best information, my best theories, clearly indicate that the universe is flat? I feel she certainly will because she will be no different than me.
Other than this big surprise I find many little surprises. Edward Gibbon attributed the Fall of the Roman Empire to a moralistic decay, this has become the common belief, but is no longer accepted by historians. The Empire had been divided into the Western Empire, based in Rome, and the Eastern Empire, based in Constantinople (Currently Istanbul), and both had exactly the same moral and social structure. The Western Empire was destroyed while the Eastern Empire continued for another thousand years; clearly the moral decay explanation had problems. The Roman Emperor Diocletian (late third century AD) blamed the moral decay on the new religious faith of Christianity. The Christians had abandoned the morality of polytheism. He aggressively committed to saving Roman society by persecuting Christians, feeding them to lions in the coliseum, impounding their property, forcing conversion by torture, all that stuff we learned in Bible school as children, however, my Bible school instructor never mention that the Emperor was fighting a moral cause. I will not be teaching that part of history to my grandchildren, some truths must wait for adulthood.
The early Christian church had not settled fundamental epistemological questions. The biggest debate was the Trinity question, how would the church conceive and explain God, the Son of God and the Holy Spirit. I will not treat this history in detail, as I read the writings of the major ancient sects with their different ideas my mind bends and I find the solution beyond my comprehension, I realize the question exceeds the intellectual capacity of any human. Almost needless to say, the early Christian philosophers could not handle this mental feat any better. This is the part where I see the ancients as no different from the contemporary. The Bishops that had been persecuted before Emperor Constantine now started to persecute their fellow Bishops until one belief prevailed. Dead Bishops don’t argue and the debate was settled.
I find history fascinating and can’t stop reading. Already I am looking for my next book purchase.

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Identifying Low Information Voters

You might be worried that you are a Low Information Voter, to help answer this question I have made a list of questions. This is a review of the basic facts you need to know to be an informed voter. All questions are a yes/no response, this is not an essay test, and discussion is not permitted.

Global warming is a scam
Evolution is a scam
Science is scam
The Universe is 6,000 years old
Guns don’t kill
The military needs more guns
Rising tides have something to do with economics
President Obama was born in Kenya
Banks should be deregulated
Women should be regulated
President Reagan personally defeated the Soviet Union
Trickle-down economics makes the poor rich
Iraq had WMDs
Saddum Hussein organized the 9/11 attacks
The Federal government spends one trillion dollars a year on welfare
47% of American’s are “Takers”
The Black helicopters are real
President Obama has committed impeachable acts
An elite education is bad
Sesame Street is socialist
Rape isn’t really rape
Rape pregnancy is a female option
Rape is a gift from God
Democratic election fraud is rampant
Tax receipts increased after President GW Bush lowered tax rates
Conservatives are smarter than Democrats
Democrats hate facts
Fox News is Fair and Balanced
All other news has a liberal bias
Obama has instituted Sharia Law
The government is destroying Christian religion
Christians are persecuted in America
The 10th amendment supersedes the rest of the Constitution
All Constitutional amendments after the 10th amendment are unconstitutional
Donald Trump is qualified to be President
Social Media is liberal mind control
Video games create mass murders
Obama hates America
Compromise is destroying America

I hope you passed the test (all statements are true), knowing that you are a High Information Voter you can feel secure of making the right choice for the right candidate. If you got even one question wrong you are a Low Information Voter, the Conservative standard is very exclusive. Conservatives need all help possible to move America forward into the 17th century while maintaining the best of the 15th century.
Creating this list of questions I realized what makes a Low Information Voter and the staggering amount of work facing us conservatives.