The old world was populated with sustenance farmers, living
from harvest to harvest. The new world is populated with sustenance employees,
living paycheck to paycheck. We have progressed from being one step ahead of starvation
to being two steps ahead of starvation. Modern societies have added safety nets
that put us three steps from starvation. This progress didn’t come from the
kind hearts of the elite, it was forced onto them by the masses. We have been
part of a massive jail break from the Malthusian Trap. Have we truly escaped
the Malthusian trap?
The political economist Robert Malthus made a basic
observation that in “every age and in every state” population increases are
limited by the means of subsistence. Population will grow until the maximum food
resource is completely used, plus, the rate of population growth always exceeds
the rate of food growth. This is true of bacteria or humans. This Malthusian
Trap, for humans, existed until the dawn of the industrial revolution. Now the
income per person could dramatically increase, in the advanced nations anyways,
then science produced the “green revolution” which increased food production beyond
the basic needs of the world’s population. Scientific discoveries, combined
with capitalist greed, had given human society a surplus of food with a surplus
of wealth to purchase it. Scientist, economist and politicians all agreed that the
Malthusian Trap had been defeated.
The Industrial Revolution is based on energy. We had learned
how to use the energy in hydrocarbons to drive a simple steam engine. The horse
was replaced by the iron horse, our available energy increased by magnitudes. Advanced
societies needed fewer farmers and more industrial employees, for the young their
best future lay in becoming industrial craftsmen. Farming income increased and
skilled workmen benefited from the bidding between industrial captains for
their labor. All this increased wealth created a mass market for goods, which
increased the need for industrial output, which increased the need for skilled craftsmen,
a virtuous cycle was created. Cities could not maintain their population due to
the mortality rate of communicable disease and hygiene. Again science stepped
up, this time medical science, germ theory and sanitation saved civilization
and the virtuous cycle first described by Adam Smith in “Wealth of Nations”
rolled onward.
Now we find ourselves in a new Malthusian Trap, this one
caused by the waste product from burning hydrocarbons. The earlier cities were
deadly because of our uncontrolled filth, now the entire world is becoming
deadly because of our uncontrolled filth.
Science has identified the problem and the solution. The
problem? Nature had reached equilibrium by balancing respiration with photosynthesis,
life converted carbon and water into sugars and free oxygen, and then life converted
the same oxygen and sugars back into carbon and water. We have upset this
balance by adding buried carbon in vast quantities to the biosphere. All this
extra carbon alters the biosphere’s retention of solar energy and starts additional
changes involving methane and water vapor. The solution? Leave the hydrocarbons
in the ground, and we need to start with coal.
Leaving the carbon in the ground, while maintaining an
advance industrial society, requires another method of generating industrial quantity
electrical power, known as the “base load”. The standard renewable energy
sources, wind power, solar power, and geothermal power, cannot deliver the base
load. The technology just isn’t up to the task. The only viable technological
solution is nuclear power.
The political supporters of renewable energy do not support
nuclear energy. The anti-nuclear crowd is vocal and organized, they have the
examples of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima to support their arguments.
For some reason they are blind to the scientific advances in nuclear reactor
design, their argument is the same as saying that because of the Hindenburg zeppelin
disaster we must abandon airplanes. The design of generation IV and future
generation V nuclear reactors answer all the horrors of the first and second
generation nuclear reactors. A short list of 4th generation reactor
benefits:
-
Nuclear waste that remains radioactive for a few
centuries instead of millennia
-
100 to 300 times more energy yield from the same
amount of nuclear fuel
-
The ability to consume existing nuclear waste in
the production of electricity
-
Improved operating safety
In realistic terms nuclear energy is our best available
solution to hydrocarbon usage. We should devote federal research and development
funds into nuclear reactor design and implementation. We need to substantially increase
our commitment to basic scientific research of nuclear fusion and orbital solar
power generation.
Escape from our new Malthusian Trap requires understanding
the problem and then supporting leadership with political courage. Individual involvement
can defeat the power and money that is stifling this much needed change. Given
the best information the general populace will make the best choice, the wisdom
of crowds is valid when based on valid data. I have faith in the average
citizen that is living paycheck to paycheck. We are smart enough, and brave
enough, to do this.
1 comment:
This stuff is way over my head, yet I see the value in your thesis. I did read that nuclear power was important, but that Japan disaster ruined it for nuclear. Thanks for the enlightenment and hopefully mankind will someday agree with you.
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